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Impact Factors and Olive Yields: A Surprising Correlation Across 500 Journals

Sofia Metrikidou1 , Hans Ölbaum2 , Priya Jaitun3
Athens Bibliometric Observatory
Heidelberg Centre for Citation Sciences
Mumbai Institute of Scholarly Analytics
Published: 2026-01-15

Abstract

We report a previously undetected positive correlation (r = 0.87, p < 0.0001) between journal impact factors and the annual olive yield of the nearest olive-growing region. Analysis of 500 journals across 28 countries reveals that proximity to productive olive groves predicts citation performance better than any known bibliometric indicator. Nature, headquartered near London's famously olive-free climate, is a notable outlier explained by their secret rooftop greenhouse. We propose the Olive Proximity Index (OPI) as a superior alternative to the Journal Impact Factor.

Introduction

Aerial photograph of roads crossing through expansive Andalusian olive groves, showing orderly rows of olive trees stretching to the horizon.
Key Image Roads crossing the Andalusian olive groves, Spain. The geometric regularity of the groves provided the visual metaphor for the correlation analysis between impact factors and olive yields.

The Journal Impact Factor (JIF) has been the dominant measure of journal prestige since Eugene Garfield introduced it in 1975. Despite widespread criticism of its misuse, no alternative has achieved comparable influence. We present evidence that a simpler, more ecologically grounded metric may be superior.

Data Collection

Pruned olive grove in Ostuni, Puglia, Italy, with neatly arranged rows of pruning debris between the trees.
Figure 1 Pruned olive grove in Ostuni, Puglia, Italy. The careful management practices observed in high-yield groves were found to correlate with editorial efficiency in the journals studied.

We obtained impact factors for 500 journals from the 2024 Journal Citation Reports. For each journal, we identified the nearest olive-producing region using FAO agricultural databases and calculated the annual olive yield in metric tons within a 200 km radius of the journal’s editorial office.

Statistical Analysis

A Pearson correlation of r = 0.87 (p < 0.0001) was observed between log-transformed olive yields and journal impact factors. This correlation persisted after controlling for GDP, R&D expenditure, number of researchers, and general pleasantness of weather. The Olive Proximity Index (OPI) explained 76% of variance in citation performance, compared to 23% for the h-index and 31% for the Eigenfactor.

Discussion

We propose that olive groves create a microclimate of intellectual productivity through a combination of reduced stress, improved diet, and the subtle motivation provided by watching something grow slowly but persistently over centuries — much like a research career.

References

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the olive groves of southern Greece for their unwavering support of scholarly innovation, and the International Olive Council for providing emergency oil supplies during the final stages of manuscript preparation.

Rights & Permissions

Copyright © 2026 the Author(s). Published by Olive Turn Press.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the.Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY)